Trade: AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill erecting a qualifying moratorium that prohibits or suspends approvals for new AI data center construction or major expansions anywhere in the United States is passed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying moratorium go into effect against the construction of any facility described in the legal text as an AI data center, AI compute facility, AI training/inference data center, or similar. Any moratorium that applies to all “data centers” will also qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $13K
- Total Volume
- $50K
- 24h Volume
- $717
- Open Interest
- $10K
Market outcomes
| AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? | 93% YES | 7% NO |
Market context
A federal law restricting or suspending approvals for new artificial intelligence data centre construction in the United States would need to pass both chambers of Congress and receive presidential signature by 31 December 2026. The market's 91% implied probability reflects substantial conviction amongst traders that such legislation will become law within the next two years, a notably high confidence level for a specific legislative outcome with a defined timeframe.
Comparable precedent exists in state-level moratoriums and construction restrictions, though federal data centre legislation remains nascent. California's 2023 power grid strain discussions prompted localised scrutiny of energy-intensive facilities, whilst various states have explored semiconductor manufacturing incentives that implicitly shape data centre siting. However, a comprehensive federal moratorium represents uncharted territory; no equivalent blanket prohibition on a major infrastructure category has recently passed Congress. The 91% probability suggests traders anticipate either bipartisan concern over energy consumption and grid capacity, or alignment around national security and supply chain arguments that could overcome typical legislative gridlock.
Key catalysts include congressional committee hearings on data centre expansion and energy demands, which have accelerated since mid-2024. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's statements on grid reliability will carry weight, as will any major power outages attributed to data centre load. Presidential positioning matters substantially given veto power; current administration rhetoric on technology regulation and energy policy will signal legislative viability. Traders should monitor state-level actions—if multiple states implement restrictions, federal momentum could accelerate. Conversely, industry lobbying and economic growth arguments favouring data centre investment could dampen legislative appetite before year-end 2026.
Wikipedia Context
-
AI data center
An AI data center is a specialized data center facility designed for the computationally intensive tasks of training and running inference for artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning models. Unlike general-purpose data centers, they are optimized for the parallel processing demands of AI workloads, typically utilizing hardware such as AI accelerato
-
Takuzo AidaTakuzo Aida is a Japanese polymer chemist specializing in supramolecular chemistry and materials science. He is deputy director of the RIKEN Center for Emergent Matter Science and a distinguished professor in the Department of Chemistry and Biotechnology at the University of Tokyo.
-
Takefumi AidaTakefumi Aida (相田武文) is a Japanese architect. He is known for his building block house series and layered memorials, which represented a break from then-current Japanese Metabolist philosophies.
-
Aida Tağızada
Aida Zeynal qızı Tağızadə was an Azerbaijani academic and musicologist.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 93% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $108 if YES resolves true — a 8% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$50K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $717 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 93%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: