Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Palantir (PLTR) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <$128 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| $128-$130 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| $130-$132 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| $132-$134 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| $134-$136 | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| $136-$138 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| $138-$140 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| $140-$142 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
Palantir Technologies' stock price at the close of trading on Friday, 16 May 2025 will determine this market's resolution. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 19% implied probability, suggesting traders are pricing in a relatively low likelihood of the stock closing within the specified bracket for that week. This probability is formed through continuous trading activity across multiple price brackets, with the spread between bid and ask prices indicating the degree of conviction around each outcome.
Palantir's share price movements have historically been volatile, particularly around earnings announcements and government contract disclosures. The company reported Q4 2024 results in February, with revenue of $643 million and adjusted operating margin of 24%, demonstrating profitability that had previously eluded the firm. Since then, the stock has traded in a range reflecting both its defence and commercial segment growth prospects and broader technology sector sentiment. Historical volatility around earnings seasons and contract wins suggests traders should monitor whether any material announcements coincide with the settlement week.
Key catalysts to watch include quarterly earnings releases, which Palantir typically announces in late April or early May, and any significant government or commercial contract announcements. The company's exposure to defence spending and intelligence budgets means geopolitical developments can influence near-term price action. Additionally, broader market movements in technology equities and shifts in investor appetite for growth stocks will likely influence PLTR's trajectory heading into mid-May 2025.
Palantir Technologies Inc. is an American publicly traded company that develops data integration and analytics platforms. Headquartered in Miami, Florida, it was founded in 2003 by Peter Thiel, Stephen Cohen, Joe Lonsdale, Alex Karp, and Nathan Gettings.
The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power is an American fantasy television series developed by J. D. Payne and Patrick McKay for the streaming service Amazon Prime Video. It is based on J. R. R. Tolkien's history of Middle-earth, primarily material from the appendices of the novel The Lord of the Rings (1954–55). The series is set thousands of years be
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Palantir (PLTR) closes week of May 11 at ___?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $66K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pltr contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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