Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $137 | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| $138 | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| $142 | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| $143 | 88% YES | 12% NO |
| $144 | 87% YES | 14% NO |
| $145 | 83% YES | 18% NO |
| $139 | 95% YES | 5% NO |
| $140 | 94% YES | 7% NO |
Palantir Technologies' share price will be assessed at the close of trading on Friday, 6 June 2026, to determine whether it finishes above a specified threshold. The 96% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects confidence in an affirmative resolution, though the specific price level required remains the key variable determining outcome likelihood.
Historical precedent suggests that technology stocks with established institutional adoption patterns tend to exhibit lower volatility around single-week price targets, particularly when probability estimates exceed 90%. Palantir's trajectory since its 2020 direct listing has shown material sensitivity to government contract announcements and quarterly earnings releases, yet week-to-week price movements have frequently remained contained within 5-8% ranges absent major catalysts. The current 96% probability implies traders are pricing minimal downside risk over the settlement window, consistent with patterns observed when blue-chip defence contractors approach earnings seasons or contract award periods.
Traders should monitor any Department of Defence announcements, quarterly earnings guidance updates, or macroeconomic shifts affecting technology sector valuations in the week preceding settlement. Recent earnings cycles have typically driven 3-4% intraday swings, though sustained directional moves have required external catalyst confirmation. The settlement window's proximity to mid-year portfolio rebalancing periods may introduce modest liquidity effects. Market holidays or early closes would not alter resolution mechanics—the official closing price from the final trading session of that week will determine outcome, regardless of session duration.
Palantir Technologies Inc. is an American publicly traded company that develops data integration and analytics software. Palantir is headquartered in Miami, Florida, and was founded in 2003 by Peter Thiel, Stephen Cohen, Joe Lonsdale, Alex Karp, and Nathan Gettings.
The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power is an American fantasy television series developed by J. D. Payne and Patrick McKay for the streaming service Amazon Prime Video. It is based on J. R. R. Tolkien's history of Middle-earth, primarily material from the appendices of the novel The Lord of the Rings (1954–55). The series is set thousands of years be
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 1 above 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$15 in lifetime turnover and $45K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pltr contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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