Trade: Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tiger Woods receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $22K
- Total Volume
- $185K
- 24h Volume
- $639
- Open Interest
- $29K
Market outcomes
| Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Market context
Tiger Woods, the professional golfer, has no known federal criminal convictions requiring a presidential pardon. Woods faced legal issues following a 2017 arrest for driving under the influence in Florida, which resulted in a plea agreement and completion of a diversion programme rather than criminal charges. A presidential pardon typically addresses federal convictions, making the underlying scenario for this market exceptionally unlikely given Woods's current legal status.
Historical precedent suggests presidential pardons concentrate on individuals with documented federal convictions seeking sentence reduction or record clearance. The 1% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the negligible probability that Woods would acquire a federal conviction before June 2026, then receive a pardon from Donald Trump within that window. Comparable cases—such as Trump's 2020–2021 pardon activity—involved individuals with established criminal records or pending legal exposure, not prominent figures without federal criminal liability.
Traders monitoring this market should watch for any unexpected federal charges against Woods, though no credible reporting suggests such developments. The market's resolution depends entirely on Woods obtaining a federal conviction and Trump subsequently issuing a pardon, commutation, or reprieve. Given Woods's current legal standing and the absence of any reported federal investigations, the probability reflects the mathematical improbability of both conditions materialising within the 18-month settlement window. The order book pricing remains stable at these extreme odds, indicating consensus scepticism among market participants.
Wikipedia Context
-
Barron TrumpBarron William Trump is the fifth and youngest child of Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th president of the United States, and his only child with his third wife, Melania Trump, which makes him a member of the first family of the United States, the Trump family.
-
Political interference with science agencies by the first Trump administration
During his first term as president of the United States (2017–2021), Donald Trump and his administration repeatedly politicized science by pressuring or overriding health and science agencies to change their reporting and recommendations so as to conform to his policies and public comments. This was particularly true with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic, but
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 1% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $10000 if YES resolves true — a 9900% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$185K in lifetime turnover and $22K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for pga contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $639 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 1%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: