Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA (NYA) on Monday, May 11, 2026 is higher than the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA (NYA) on Monday, May 11, 2026 is lower than the official NYSE Composite Index closing price for NYA on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| NYA (NYA) Up or Down on May 11? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
The NYSE Composite Index will close on Monday, 11 May 2026, and this market resolves based on whether that closing price exceeds the prior trading day's close. The 50% implied probability currently reflected in Polymarket's order book suggests traders view the directional move as a genuine coin flip, with neither bullish nor bearish conviction dominating the book at present.
Single-day equity index movements of this scale historically reflect a mix of overnight developments and intraday sentiment shifts. The NYSE Composite, which encompasses all listed stocks on the exchange, tends to track broader macroeconomic signals and overnight news from Asian and European markets. Over rolling one-day periods, the index moves up or down with roughly equal frequency absent major scheduled events; the current 50-50 split aligns with this baseline volatility pattern. Traders should note that Monday openings often digest weekend developments, and positioning ahead of the settlement window will likely tighten the probability as new information surfaces.
Key catalysts entering the week of 11 May include any Federal Reserve communications, employment data releases, or corporate earnings announcements scheduled for that period. Overnight movements in Asian equity markets and any geopolitical developments will feed into Monday's opening. Traders monitoring the order book should watch for shifts in implied probability as the settlement window approaches; material economic data or central bank guidance released in the preceding days would typically compress the current wide 50-50 split toward directional conviction.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "NYA (NYA) Up or Down on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $9 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nya contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 50%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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