Trade: NE-03 House Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $20K
- Total Volume
- $4K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $825
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
| Republican Party | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
Market context
Nebraska's 3rd congressional district will elect a House representative in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 7% probability that a candidate outside the Democratic and Republican parties will win the seat, with the remaining 93% distributed between the two major parties. This pricing reflects expectations about the district's partisan composition and the likelihood of a viable third-party or independent candidacy emerging.
Nebraska's 3rd district has voted reliably Republican in recent cycles, with Don Bacon (R) winning the seat in 2020 and 2022 by comfortable margins. Historical precedent suggests third-party or independent candidates rarely gain traction in House races, particularly in districts with established partisan lean. The 7% implied probability for a non-major-party winner sits well above the typical success rate for such candidacies in House elections, where fewer than 1% of seats change hands to non-aligned candidates in most election cycles. This elevated probability may reflect either genuine uncertainty about candidate recruitment or the market's assessment of potential dissatisfaction with major-party options in the district.
Traders should monitor candidate filing deadlines and primary schedules as they approach, typically occurring in spring 2026. Announcements regarding Bacon's re-election intentions or potential primary challengers will shape expectations about the general election field. Shifts in Nebraska's political dynamics or notable recruitment efforts by either major party could move the probability, as would any credible independent or third-party candidate announcements.
Wikipedia Context
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Hal NewhouserHarold Newhouser, nicknamed "Prince Hal" and "Hurricane Hal," was an American professional baseball player. He played in Major League Baseball as a pitcher from 1939 to 1955, most notably for the Detroit Tigers, where he was selected for seven straight All-Star Games from 1942 to 1948. He became the first pitcher to win the Most Valuable Player Award twice i
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Dan NewhouseDaniel Milton Newhouse is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Washington's 4th congressional district. The district covers much of the central third of the state, including Yakima and the Tri-Cities. Before his election to Congress, Newhouse served as director of the Washington State Department of Agriculture and as a member of the
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Newhouse School of Public CommunicationsThe Newhouse School of Public Communications is the communications and journalism school of Syracuse University in Syracuse, New York. The school was named after publishing magnate Samuel Irving Newhouse Sr., founder of Advance Publications, who provided the founding gift in 1964.
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George Newhouse
George Newhouse is an Australian human rights lawyer and a former local councillor. He is the principal solicitor of the National Justice Project, a human rights and social justice legal service, and currently an Adjunct Professor of Law at Macquarie University and at the University of Technology Sydney.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "NE-03 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$4K in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nov 4 elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "NE-03 House Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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