Trade: MA-03 House Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $28K
- Total Volume
- $12K
- 24h Volume
- $7K
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 95% YES | 6% NO |
| Other | — | |
| C | — | |
| A | — | |
| Republican Party | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| D | — | |
| E | — | |
| B | — | |
Market context
Massachusetts's 3rd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November 2026. The district, which encompasses parts of Worcester and Norfolk counties, has been represented by Democrat Jake Auchincloss since 2021. The current 95% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong confidence in Democratic retention, with the spread between YES and NO positions indicating minimal uncertainty among active traders on the platform.
MA-03 has voted Democratic in recent cycles, though not uniformly. In 2020, Auchincloss won with 51% of the vote against Republican Peter Tewhey; in 2022, he secured re-election with 58% against Republican Ronnie Costa. The district's lean provides context for the high probability, though Massachusetts has seen competitive House races in districts with similar demographics. The 95% figure suggests traders are pricing in both historical Democratic performance and the typical advantage of incumbency, whilst acknowledging non-trivial tail risk from potential redistricting effects or unexpected candidate quality shifts.
Key catalysts include the formal announcement of candidates from both parties, likely occurring in late 2025 or early 2026, and any significant shifts in national political conditions that might affect midterm dynamics. Redistricting outcomes, finalised by the Massachusetts legislature, could alter the district's composition and competitiveness. Traders should monitor primary election results and candidate fundraising announcements as signals of genuine competitive intensity, particularly whether Republicans field a notably stronger challenger than in recent cycles.
Wikipedia Context
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Madhouse, Inc.
Madhouse, Inc. is a Japanese animation studio founded in 1972 by ex–Mushi Pro staff, including Masao Maruyama, Osamu Dezaki, and Yoshiaki Kawajiri.
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Mick MalthouseMichael Raymond Malthouse is a former Australian rules footballer and coach, who played for the St Kilda Football Club and Richmond Football Club in the Victorian Football League (VFL).
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Mahō Sentai MagirangerMahō Sentai Magiranger is a Japanese Tokusatsu television show and Toei Company's twenty-ninth production of the Super Sentai metaseries. It aired from February 13, 2005, to February 12, 2006, replacing Tokusou Sentai Dekaranger and was replaced by GoGo Sentai Boukenger. The action footage was used in Power Rangers Mystic Force and both shows had scenes sim
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Kit MalthouseChristopher Laurie Malthouse is a British Conservative Party politician and businessman who has served as Member of Parliament (MP) for North West Hampshire since 2015. He served as Secretary of State for Education from 6 September to 25 October 2022, and previously served as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster from July to September 2022.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "MA-03 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$12K in lifetime turnover and $28K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nov 4 elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "MA-03 House Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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