Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 94% YES | 6% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
| Republican Party | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
Illinois's 3rd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November 2026. The district, which encompasses parts of Chicago and Cook County, has been a reliably Democratic seat since 2012. The current 94% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial structural advantage Democrats hold in this constituency, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a significant margin and Joe Biden secured approximately 68% of the vote in 2020.
Historical performance provides the primary lens for interpreting this probability. Illinois's 3rd district has voted Democratic in every House election since 2012, and the seat has remained in Democratic hands through successive redistricting cycles. Comparable safe Democratic seats in the Midwest show similar probability ranges when approached two years before an election, though uncertainty typically increases as the election cycle progresses and candidate quality becomes apparent. The 94% figure suggests traders are pricing in a modest but material risk of either an unexpected Republican surge or a competitive primary that could weaken the Democratic nominee.
Key catalysts will include candidate announcements from both parties, which typically accelerate in 2025 and early 2026, and any shifts in national political momentum that could affect even traditionally safe districts. Redistricting outcomes, though unlikely to substantially alter the district's Democratic lean, remain a technical dependency. Economic conditions and national approval ratings heading into autumn 2026 will influence whether this seat experiences genuine competitive pressure or settles into its historical pattern.
The Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives is seventh in the line of succession to the office of Governor of Illinois.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "IL-03 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$36K in lifetime turnover and $29K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for nov 4 elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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