Trade: Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if NIKE's Greater China revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $129
- Total Volume
- $211
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $192
Market outcomes
| $1.0B | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| $1.1B | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| $1.2B | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| $1.3B | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| $1.4B | 57% YES | 43% NO |
Market context
Nike will report fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue for Greater China in June 2026, with the market currently pricing a 49% probability that this figure exceeds a specified threshold. The settlement hinges on official earnings disclosures; any subsequent revisions to reported figures will not affect resolution. Should Nike fail to disclose Greater China revenue separately in its earnings materials, the market resolves to "No" regardless of actual performance.
Greater China represents Nike's second-largest geography by revenue, historically accounting for roughly 15–20% of total sales. The region's performance has proven volatile, shaped by macroeconomic conditions, competitive pressures from domestic brands, and consumer spending patterns. In fiscal 2025, Nike faced headwinds in China amid softer demand and inventory corrections, which traders should weigh when assessing whether Q4 FY2026 revenues will exceed the specified level. The even split on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about Nike's recovery trajectory in the region over the coming quarters.
Traders should monitor Nike's quarterly earnings announcements and any management guidance on China recovery timelines. Currency fluctuations between the Chinese yuan and US dollar will also influence reported dollar-denominated revenue figures. Additionally, broader consumer spending data from China and competitive dynamics with brands like Adidas and local competitors may signal demand trends ahead of the June settlement window. Nike typically reports earnings in late June or early July, providing the final data point for resolution.
Wikipedia Context
-
Nike, Inc.Nike, Inc. is an American athletic footwear and apparel corporation headquartered near Beaverton, Oregon. It is the world's largest supplier of athletic shoes and apparel and a major manufacturer of sports equipment, with revenue in excess of US$46 billion in its fiscal year 2022.
-
Nike (mythology)In Greek mythology and ancient religion, Nike is the personification of the abstract concept of victory. She was the goddess of victory in battle, as well as in other kinds of contests. According to Hesiod's Theogony, she is the daughter of Styx and the Titan Pallas, and the sister of similar personifications: Zelus, Kratos, and Bia.
-
Nike HerculesThe Nike Hercules, initially designated SAM-A-25 and later MIM-14, was a surface-to-air missile (SAM) used by U.S. and NATO armed forces for medium- and high-altitude long-range air defense. It was normally armed with the W31 nuclear warhead, but could also be fitted with a conventional warhead for export use. Its warhead also allowed it to be used in a seco
-
Nike Air MaxNike Air Max is a line of shoes produced by Nike, Inc., with the first model released in 1986. Air Max shoes are identified by their midsoles incorporating flexible urethane pouches filled with pressurized gas, visible from the exterior of the shoe and intended to provide cushioning to the underfoot. Air Max was conceptualized by Tinker Hatfield, who initial
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$211 in lifetime turnover and $129 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nike contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 25 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: