Trade: Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31?

Market context

The Chicago Bears' relocation status hinges on whether the franchise announces a permanent move outside Illinois by year-end 2026. Currently trading at 35% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, the market reflects meaningful uncertainty around the team's stadium future. The Bears have played at Soldier Field since 1919, making any departure a seismic shift in NFL geography and one of sport's most established institutional anchors.

Historical precedent suggests relocation announcements typically follow extended public negotiation cycles. The Raiders' 2016 Las Vegas move took years of stadium discussions; the Chargers' 2017 Los Angeles relocation involved lengthy San Diego negotiations before the announcement. The Bears' situation differs in that Illinois and Chicago have demonstrated willingness to invest in Soldier Field upgrades, though the team's ownership has publicly explored stadium alternatives. The current probability reflects genuine ambiguity rather than consensus expectation of departure.

Key catalysts centre on the Bears' stadium negotiations with Illinois state officials and the Chicago Park District, which controls Soldier Field. Any formal announcement of relocation discussions with out-of-state municipalities—whether Las Vegas, San Antonio, or other markets—would likely shift market pricing sharply. The NFL's 2026 stadium development timeline and potential changes in team ownership could also prove decisive. Traders should monitor official Bears statements, legislative developments in Illinois regarding stadium funding, and any public expressions of interest from rival jurisdictions, as the resolution criteria require an official announcement rather than mere speculation or exploratory talks.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 30% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $333 if YES resolves true — a 233% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$6K in lifetime turnover and $32 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nfl contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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