Trade: UFC: Who will Charles Oliveira fight next?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Charles Oliveira is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Charles Oliveira is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1K
- Total Volume
- $29K
- 24h Volume
- $48
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| Dan Hooker | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Maurício Ruffy | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Islam Makhachev | 1% YES | 99% NO |
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| Placeholder G | — | |
| Placeholder J | — | |
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| Placeholder B | — | |
Market context
Charles Oliveira, the former UFC lightweight champion, will face an opponent to be determined in his next official bout. The market resolves upon UFC announcement of a scheduled fight, regardless of whether that contest ultimately occurs. The 47% implied probability reflects current market sentiment on whether such an announcement will materialise before 1 March 2027.
Oliveira's recent fight history provides context for reading this probability. Following his title loss to Islam Makhachev in October 2024, he has remained in the heavyweight conversation without a confirmed next opponent. Previous gaps between his fights have ranged from three to six months when actively scheduled, though negotiations and injuries have occasionally extended timelines. The current probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether the UFC will formally announce a bout within the settlement window, balanced against the likelihood that a fighter of Oliveira's profile will receive a scheduled matchup within a two-year period.
Traders should monitor UFC official announcements and Dana White's public statements regarding Oliveira's next opponent. Recent reporting from MMA outlets indicates the promotion is evaluating potential matchups, though no official date has been confirmed as of late 2024. Key catalysts include injury updates affecting Oliveira or prospective opponents, championship fight scheduling that might affect the lightweight or welterweight divisions, and any formal UFC press releases with scheduled bout dates. The order book's current formation reflects these uncertainties, with the 47% probability indicating relatively balanced positioning between resolution and non-resolution scenarios.
Wikipedia Context
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USS Charles CarrollUSS Charles Carroll (APA-28) was a Crescent City-class attack transport that served with the US Navy during World War II.
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Charles UlmCharles Thomas Philippe Ulm was a pioneer Australian aviator. He partnered with Charles Kingsford Smith in achieving a number of aviation firsts, serving as Kingsford Smith's co-pilot on the first transpacific flight and the first flight between Australia and New Zealand. He and two others disappeared near Hawaii in 1934 while undertaking a test flight for a
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USS CharlesUSS Charles (ID-1298) was a troop transport that served in the United States Navy from 1918 to 1920 and was briefly in commission as USS Harvard in 1918 and 1920. She was better known in her role as passenger liner SS Harvard, one of the premier West Coast steamships operated by the Los Angeles Steamship Company.
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USS Charleston (C-2)The second USS Charleston (C-2) was a United States Navy protected cruiser — the fourth US protected cruiser to be built. Lacking experience in building steel cruisers, the design was purchased from the British company Armstrong, Mitchell and Co. of Newcastle, the construction to be by an American shipyard. In design, she succeeded the "ABC" cruisers Atlanta
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "UFC: Who will Charles Oliveira fight next?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$29K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for mma contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $48 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 March 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "UFC: Who will Charles Oliveira fight next? "?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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