Trade: Mississippi Senate Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Mississippi U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $18K
- Total Volume
- $22K
- 24h Volume
- $14
- Open Interest
- $6K
Market outcomes
| Republican | 88% YES | 12% NO |
| Person B | — | |
| Person D | — | |
| Person F | — | |
| Person H | — | |
| Person J | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Democrat | 12% YES | 88% NO |
Market context
The 2026 United States Senate election in Mississippi will determine which party holds the seat currently occupied by Republican Roger Wicker. Mississippi has voted consistently Republican in statewide federal elections since 2008, with the state's last Democratic Senate winner being John C. Stennis in 1988. The current 88% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong confidence in a Republican victory, shaped by the state's recent electoral trajectory and demographic composition.
Historical context suggests this probability aligns with Mississippi's partisan lean. In the 2022 midterms, Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith won re-election with 58% of the vote against Democrat Chris Espy. The state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in over three decades, and Republican performance in statewide races has strengthened rather than weakened. Comparable deep-red states have occasionally produced surprises when facing weak Republican nominees or exceptionally strong Democratic challengers, though such outcomes remain statistical outliers.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and field composition as primary season approaches. The identity of the Republican nominee—whether Wicker seeks another term or the seat opens—will significantly influence market dynamics. Democratic recruitment efforts and any third-party candidacies could alter the race structure. National political conditions in 2026, including approval ratings and midterm dynamics, will shape turnout and persuadable voter behaviour. The settlement window closes on 3 November 2026, following the general election and any potential runoff procedures under Mississippi law.
Wikipedia Context
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Mississippi State SenateThe Mississippi State Senate is the upper house of the Mississippi Legislature, the state legislature of the U.S. state of Mississippi. The Senate, along with the lower Mississippi House of Representatives, convenes at the Mississippi State Capitol in Jackson. The Lieutenant Governor of Mississippi serves as President of the Senate.
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Mississippi Senate Bill 2753
Mississippi Senate Bill 2753 , also known as the Securing Areas for Females Effectively and Responsibly (SAFER) Act, is a 2024 law in the state of Mississippi that restricts access to student housing and restrooms, along with other related facilities, to that of biological sex and not gender identity. It was signed into law by Governor Tate Reeves on May 13,
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Mississippi Senate Bill 3074
An Act to Amend Section 93-17-3, Mississippi Code of 1972, To Conform Adoption Provisions to the Licensure of Nurse Practitioners; To Prohibit Adoption by Same Gender Couples; and For Related Purposes, also called the Mississippi Adoption Ban, is a 2000 Mississippi anti-LGBT statute that amended state law to prohibit adoption by "couples of the same gender",
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Mississippi State PenitentiaryMississippi State Penitentiary (MSP), also known as Parchman Farm, is a maximum-security prison farm located in the unincorporated community of Parchman in Sunflower County, Mississippi, in the Mississippi Delta region. Occupying about 28 square miles (73 km2) of land, Parchman is the only maximum security prison for men in the state of Mississippi, and is t
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Mississippi Senate Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$22K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for midterms contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Mississippi Senate Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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