Trade: Alaska Governor Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $169K
- Total Volume
- $967K
- 24h Volume
- $607
- Open Interest
- $25K
Market outcomes
| Click Bishop | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Adam Crum | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Edna DeVries | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Shelley Hughes | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Treg Taylor | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Lisa Murkowski | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Mary Peltola | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Hank Kroll | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Alaska will hold its gubernatorial election on 3 November 2026, with the winner taking office in 2027. The current Polymarket order book implies a 6% probability for the YES position, reflecting substantial uncertainty about which candidate will prevail. This low probability suggests the market is pricing in either a heavily favoured incumbent or frontrunner, though the specific candidate dynamics remain fluid ahead of the formal campaign season.
Alaska's electoral history demonstrates significant volatility in statewide races. The state has elected governors from both major parties in recent cycles, and independent candidates have performed competitively—most notably Lisa Murkowski's successful 2022 Senate campaign under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system. The 6% implied probability must be contextualised against whether an incumbent is seeking re-election and the strength of primary challengers. Comparable gubernatorial races in smaller states with ranked-choice voting systems have produced unexpected outcomes when multiple viable candidates fragment the vote.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, including primary filing deadlines and major endorsements. The Alaska Republican and Democratic party conventions will signal which candidates command establishment backing. Media coverage of polling data, if released, will provide crucial information for recalibrating probabilities. The resolution mechanism requires agreement from Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC before settlement, meaning disputed or extremely close races could delay resolution until official certification by 31 July 2027.
Wikipedia Context
-
List of governors of AlaskaThe governor of Alaska is the head of government of Alaska. The governor is the chief executive of the state and is the holder of the highest office in the executive branch of the government as well as being the commander in chief of the Alaska's state forces.
-
Alaska Governor's MansionThe Alaska Governor's Mansion, located at 716 Calhoun Avenue in Juneau, Alaska, United States, is the official residence of the governor of Alaska, the first spouse of Alaska, and their families. It was designed by James Knox Taylor. The Governor's Mansion was first occupied in 1912 by Territorial Governor Walter Eli Clark.
-
Al-Ahsa GovernorateAl-Ahsa, historically known as Hajar and also referred to as Al-Hasa, is a governorate in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. It is the largest governorate in the country by area, covering approximately 375,000 km². As of 2022, it had a population of 1,104,267. Its seat is Hofuf.
-
Capital Governorate (Kuwait)The Asimah Governorate or Capital Governorate, sometimes referred to as Al Kuwayt, is one of the six governorates of Kuwait. It comprises the historic core of Kuwait City, industrial and port areas such as Shuwaikh Port and Doha Port, and several offshore islands.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Alaska Governor Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$967K in lifetime turnover and $169K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for midterms contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $607 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Alaska Governor Election Winner "?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: