Trade: Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $81K
- Total Volume
- $567K
- 24h Volume
- $2
- Open Interest
- $48K
Market outcomes
| Oman | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| Kuwait | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| Syria | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| Lebanon | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| Saudi Arabia | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Azerbaijan | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| Somaliland | 36% YES | 65% NO |
Market context
The Abraham Accords framework, initiated in 2020, has produced formal normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab states including the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. The question of whether an additional country will join before the end of 2026 hinges on which nations remain diplomatically positioned to pursue such an agreement. Current crowd pricing at 13% YES reflects scepticism about near-term expansion, though the framework remains formally open to new signatories.
Historical precedent suggests that Abraham Accords signings cluster around specific geopolitical moments and bilateral incentives rather than occurring steadily. The initial wave (2020–2021) capitalised on shifting regional dynamics and US diplomatic engagement under the Trump administration. Subsequent signings have slowed considerably, with Sudan's 2020 agreement facing implementation challenges and Morocco's 2020 accord tied to US recognition of its Western Sahara claims. This pattern indicates that additional signings require either significant diplomatic breakthrough or a country facing compelling strategic incentives to normalise with Israel.
Traders should monitor several catalysts through 2026: statements from remaining candidates such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, or smaller Gulf states; shifts in US Middle East policy following electoral cycles; developments in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict that could either accelerate or freeze normalization efforts; and any formal multilateral initiatives reviving the Accords framework. Recent reporting from regional media outlets and official government channels will signal genuine movement, though public announcements often lag behind confidential negotiations by months.
Wikipedia Context
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The King of Queens is an American television sitcom created by Michael J. Weithorn and David Litt and starring Kevin James and Leah Remini, that premiered on CBS on September 21, 1998, and ended on May 14, 2007. A total of 207 episodes were produced, spanning nine seasons.
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The Real Housewives of Orange County season 10The tenth season of The Real Housewives of Orange County, an American reality television series, was broadcast on Bravo. It aired June 8, 2015 until November 12, 2015, and was primarily filmed in Orange County, California. Its executive producers are Adam Karpel, Alex Baskin, Douglas Ross, Gregory Stewart, Scott Dunlop, Stephanie Boyriven and Andy Cohen.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$567K in lifetime turnover and $81K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for middle east contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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