Trade: China Annual Inflation 2026
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $6K
- Total Volume
- $40K
- 24h Volume
- $5
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| <-1.0% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 0.6 – 1.0% | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| 0.1 – 0.5% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 2.5%+ | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| -0.9 – -0.5% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.1 – 1.5% | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| -0.4 – 0.0% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.6 – 2.0% | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Market context
China's National Bureau of Statistics will release its December 2026 Consumer Price Index report in January 2027, measuring the year-on-year change in consumer prices across the 12-month period ending December 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing in an expectation that inflation will fall outside the YES resolution criteria, though the specific threshold defining YES has not been detailed in the market description provided.
Chinese inflation has remained subdued in recent years, with CPI averaging around 2% annually through 2023 and 2024. The 0% probability suggests traders anticipate 2026 will follow this pattern of low inflation, consistent with China's persistent deflationary pressures and weak domestic demand. Historical context matters here: even during periods of global commodity price spikes, China's CPI has remained relatively contained due to structural overcapacity and weak consumer spending. The People's Bank of China has maintained accommodative monetary policy, which typically supports lower inflation outcomes.
Key catalysts for traders to monitor include quarterly GDP releases and monthly CPI readings throughout 2026, which will provide real-time signals of inflationary momentum. The PBOC's policy decisions on interest rates and reserve requirement ratios will influence price dynamics heading into year-end. Property market developments and energy prices—particularly crude oil—represent external variables affecting the inflation trajectory. Any significant shift in domestic demand or supply-side shocks could alter current market expectations, though the consensus reflected in today's order book suggests traders view low inflation as the baseline scenario for 2026.
Wikipedia Context
-
Human Rights Record of the United States
The Human Rights Record of the United States is an annual publication by the Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China as a retort to the Country Reports on Human Rights Practices by the United States Department of State. The report was first issued in 1998, which each of the Chinese reports citing the U.S. State Department's
-
China (Anuel AA song)"China" is a song by Puerto Rican rappers Anuel AA and Daddy Yankee and Colombian singer Karol G with Puerto Rican singer Ozuna and Colombian singer J Balvin from Anuel AA's second studio album Emmanuel, released July 19, 2019, through Anuel AA's label, Real Hasta la Muerte, featuring a music video directed by Marlon Peña. The official music video was immedi
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "China Annual Inflation 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$40K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for macro indicators contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "China Annual Inflation 2026"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: