Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Intuit's Online Ecosystem revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $2.5B | 92% YES | 9% NO |
| $2.6B | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| $2.45B | 92% YES | 9% NO |
| $2.55B | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Intuit's Online Ecosystem segment—comprising small business and self-employed offerings including QuickBooks Online, Credit Karma, and related cloud services—will report Q3 fiscal 2026 results in May 2026. The 92% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong confidence that revenue will exceed the specified threshold, with current bids and asks pricing this outcome as highly favourable to the affirmative.
Intuit's Online Ecosystem has demonstrated consistent double-digit growth over recent years, driven by sustained adoption of cloud accounting software and expansion into adjacent verticals. Historical performance suggests the segment has reliably met or exceeded guidance, with management typically conservative in forward projections. The current probability reflects this track record alongside analyst consensus expectations for continued momentum in small business technology spending through 2026.
Traders should monitor Intuit's Q2 2026 earnings announcement (expected February 2026) for updated guidance and management commentary on Online Ecosystem trajectory. Macroeconomic conditions affecting small business formation and spending, competitive pressures from Xero and Wave, and any material changes to product pricing or go-to-market strategy could shift expectations. The settlement window closes 20 May 2026, shortly after typical earnings release timing, leaving minimal window for post-announcement repricing once official figures are disclosed.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10 in lifetime turnover and $221 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for kpis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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