Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on June 17, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1 | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| 3 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| 0 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| 2 | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| 4+ | 6% YES | 95% NO |
The Federal Reserve's June 2026 policy meeting will determine whether any of the twelve voting FOMC members dissent from the majority decision on the federal funds rate. Dissents occur when committee members believe the chosen policy rate should be higher or lower than the consensus, and they are formally recorded in the meeting statement released immediately after the decision. The current order book on Polymarket prices dissent at 27% probability, implying markets expect a largely unified committee.
Historically, dissent frequency at FOMC meetings correlates with economic uncertainty and divergent inflation or employment outlooks. During the 2015–2018 tightening cycle, dissents appeared sporadically as members disagreed on rate-hike timing. The 2020–2021 period saw minimal dissent despite significant policy shifts, whilst the 2022–2023 hiking campaign produced occasional dissents from hawks wanting faster increases. With eighteen months until the June 2026 meeting, the current 27% probability reflects expectations of broad consensus, though this baseline will shift substantially as economic data accumulates and Fed communications clarify the committee's stance.
Traders should monitor inflation trends, labour market reports, and Fed speakers' remarks between now and June 2026, as these will shape whether members see reason to break ranks. The Fed's quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, released at FOMC meetings, often signals internal disagreement through the "dot plot" of individual rate expectations. Any significant deviation from the Fed's current policy path—whether from unexpected inflation persistence or employment weakness—would increase the likelihood of dissent. Powell's communications style and any shifts in committee composition through natural turnover will also influence consensus-building dynamics.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for jerome powell contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $430 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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