Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Russell Cleveland | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Matt Rains | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate D | — | |
| Candidate E | — | |
| Candidate G | — | |
| Samuel Forstag | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Candidate A | — | |
Montana's 1st congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 2 June 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 5% probability that a Democratic nominee will be formally announced by the 3 November 2026 deadline, suggesting traders assess either a low likelihood of a viable Democratic candidate emerging or significant uncertainty around the nomination process itself.
Historical context for Montana House primaries shows variable participation rates and candidate recruitment patterns. The state's 1st district, which encompasses the western portion including Missoula, has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, though the district remains competitive. In 2022, Democrat Monica Tranel secured 48.4% against Republican Ryan Zinke in the general election, indicating sufficient Democratic infrastructure to mount credible campaigns. The 5% implied probability reflects either scepticism that Democrats will field a candidate in this cycle or uncertainty about whether nomination mechanics will function as expected.
Traders should monitor candidate announcement timelines through spring 2026, particularly from the Montana Democratic Party and national House campaign committees. The state's primary date of 2 June provides a compressed timeline for candidate recruitment and ballot access compared to earlier primary states. Any significant shifts in national Democratic strategy regarding Montana, changes to the district's boundaries through redistricting, or unexpected candidate withdrawals would materially affect nomination probabilities. Local Montana news sources and Democratic Party communications will signal whether recruitment efforts are materialising.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "MT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for house primary contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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