Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Aisha Wahab | 89% YES | 11% NO |
| Wendy Huang | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Matt Ortega | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Victor Aguilar Jr. | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Person B | — | |
| Person D | — | |
| Person F | — | |
| Person H | — | |
California's 14th Congressional District will hold a special election on 18 August 2026 to fill a vacant House seat. The current order book on Polymarket implies an 84% probability that a winner will be determined by the settlement deadline of 31 December 2026, reflecting confidence that the election will proceed as scheduled and produce a decisive result without protracted legal challenges or delayed certification.
Special elections in California's congressional districts have historically resolved within the statutory timeframe, though the state's ranked-choice voting system and potential runoff provisions add complexity. The 2022 special election for CA-20 (David Valadao's seat) concluded definitively in June of that year, whilst CA-3 in 2021 (Kevin Kiley's seat) resolved in June as well. These precedents suggest that absent extraordinary circumstances—such as litigation over ballot access, voter fraud allegations, or certification disputes—results typically crystallise well before year-end. The 84% probability reflects this historical pattern whilst acknowledging residual tail risk from unforeseen complications.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and filing deadlines, typically occurring several weeks before the election date, as these will clarify the field and fundraising dynamics. California's Secretary of State website will publish official election materials and timelines. Any significant legal challenges to ballot access or voting procedures could extend the resolution window, though such disputes would need to remain unresolved through 31 December 2026 to trigger an "Other" settlement. Certification delays beyond the standard timeline would be the primary catalyst affecting the current probability.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$956 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for house of representatives contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $9 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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