Trade: 2026 Kentucky Derby: Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the listed horse who wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby, scheduled for May 2, 2026. If a listed horse withdraws, is disqualified by May 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or does not participate in the 2026 Kentucky Derby, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by the race organizer. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the horse that accumulated more points in the Road to the Kentucky Derby. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the horse whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $4K
- Total Volume
- $37
- 24h Volume
- $3
- Open Interest
- $37
Market outcomes
| Renegade | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| Commandment | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| The Puma | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| So Happy | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Fulleffort | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Wonder Dean | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Silent Tactic | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Chip Honcho | 46% YES | 55% NO |
Market context
The 2026 Kentucky Derby will be contested on 2 May at Churchill Downs, with the winner determined by official race result and, in the event of a tie, by Road to the Kentucky Derby points accumulated through the qualifying series. The current order book on Polymarket prices this specific horse at 15% implied probability, reflecting the market's assessment against the field of eligible three-year-olds. Settlement occurs immediately following the race conclusion at 11:59 PM ET on race day.
Historical Kentucky Derby outcomes show that horses carrying single-digit to mid-teens probability typically represent either emerging contenders with limited racing history or established runners facing genuine competitive uncertainty. The 15% mark sits between longshot territory and genuine contender status, suggesting the market views this horse as having material but not dominant winning chances. Prior editions demonstrate that probability shifts materially in the weeks preceding the race as horses complete their Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying races, with injuries, form deterioration, or breakthrough performances substantially moving prices.
Traders should monitor the horse's performance in qualifying races through spring 2026, particularly in graded stakes events that feed Road to the Kentucky Derby points. Announcements regarding trainer changes, veterinary concerns, or track conditions at Churchill Downs will influence positioning. The schedule of qualifying races—typically concluding in late April—creates natural volatility windows as market participants reassess competitive positioning. Any withdrawal or disqualification before race day triggers immediate "No" resolution, creating tail-risk considerations for positions held through the settlement window.
Wikipedia Context
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2026 Kentucky Derby
The 2026 Kentucky Derby was the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby. It took place on May 2, 2026, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Golden Tempo won the race with time 2:02.27. As a result, Golden Tempo trainer Cherie DeVaux became the first woman trainer to win the Derby.
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2022 Kentucky DerbyThe 2022 Kentucky Derby took place on Saturday, May 7, 2022, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. It was the 148th running of the Kentucky Derby, a 1+1⁄4 miles (2.0 km) Grade I stakes race for three-year-old Thoroughbreds. The Derby is held annually at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May since its inception in 1875. The 20 horses that ran in
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2023 Kentucky Derby
The 2023 Kentucky Derby was the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby. It took place on May 6, 2023, the first Saturday in May, in Louisville, Kentucky. The race was open to 20 horses, who qualified for the race by earning points on the 2023 Road to the Kentucky Derby. The Kentucky Derby is a Grade I stakes race at a distance of 1+1⁄4 miles (2.0 km) and has be
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2021 Kentucky DerbyThe 2021 Kentucky Derby was the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby. It took place on May 1, 2021, in Louisville, Kentucky. The field was open to 20 horses, who qualified for the race by earning points on the 2021 Road to the Kentucky Derby. The Kentucky Derby is a Grade I stakes race for three-year-old Thoroughbreds at a distance of 1+1⁄4 miles (2.0 km) and
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "2026 Kentucky Derby: Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$37 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for horse racing contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "2026 Kentucky Derby: Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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