Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| September 30 | 95% YES | 5% NO |
| May 31 | 41% YES | 60% NO |
OpenAI must release a new frontier model with public access by 30 September 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The model must be available to the general public through open beta, rolling waitlist signups, or standard public release channels; closed beta or restricted access arrangements do not qualify. OpenAI's public announcement must explicitly position the release as frontier-class and generally accessible.
The 58% implied probability reflects OpenAI's established cadence of releasing successively more capable models. GPT-4 launched in March 2023, GPT-4 Turbo arrived in November 2023, and GPT-4o followed in May 2024. This roughly six-to-nine month release cycle suggests multiple opportunities for a new frontier model within the 21-month settlement window. However, the probability discount from near-certainty accounts for execution risks: development delays, strategic decisions to keep models private or restricted, or definitional ambiguity around what constitutes a "frontier" release versus incremental updates.
Traders should monitor OpenAI's developer conference announcements, earnings calls from parent entities, and public statements from leadership regarding product roadmaps. The company's recent shift towards reasoning-focused models (o1 series) and multimodal capabilities signals active development. Regulatory developments affecting model deployment timelines, particularly around transparency and safety requirements, could influence release schedules. The settlement window extends through Q3 2026, creating a final catalyst window in the months immediately preceding the deadline.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for gpt contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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