Trade: Will Putin visit China by May 31?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: If Vladimir Putin visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Putin physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Putin enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Vladimir Putin, the Federal Government of Russia, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $20K
- Total Volume
- $107K
- 24h Volume
- $4K
- Open Interest
- $38K
Market outcomes
| Will Putin visit China by May 31? | 76% YES | 24% NO |
Market context
Vladimir Putin's travel to Chinese territory within the next eighteen months represents a significant geopolitical indicator. The 79% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial trader confidence in such a visit occurring before the May 2026 deadline, though the current bid-ask spread and order depth will continue shaping this probability as new information emerges.
Historical precedent suggests high-level Sino-Russian diplomatic engagement typically materialises through state visits. Putin last visited China in March 2023, attending a three-day state visit that underscored deepening bilateral ties following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Prior to that, Putin visited in 2019 and 2015, establishing a pattern of visits occurring within two to three-year intervals. The current 79% probability reflects market participants' assessment that this historical cadence, combined with sustained strategic alignment between Moscow and Beijing, makes another visit reasonably probable within the timeframe.
Key catalysts traders should monitor include official announcements from the Kremlin or Chinese Foreign Ministry regarding state visits or high-level summits. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, typically held annually, could serve as a formal occasion for Putin's attendance. Additionally, any significant developments in US-China relations or NATO-Russia tensions could accelerate diplomatic scheduling. Recent reporting from Reuters and TASS has noted ongoing discussions between Russian and Chinese officials regarding deepened economic and military cooperation, though no confirmed visit dates have been publicly announced. Traders should also track Putin's domestic security situation and any international arrest warrant developments, which could theoretically constrain his travel options.
Wikipedia Context
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2025 Russia–United States summitThe 2025 Russia–United States Summit was a summit meeting between United States president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin. It was held on August 15, 2025, at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. The main topic of discussion was the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. The summit ended without an agreement being announced, although
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PutinismPutinism is the social, political, and economic system of Russia formed during the political leadership of Vladimir Putin. It is characterized by the concentration of political and financial powers in the hands of "siloviks", current and former "people with shoulder marks", coming from a total of 22 governmental enforcement agencies, the majority of them bei
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List of Russian nationals named in the CAATSA unclassified report
The list of Russian nationals named in the CAATSA unclassified report, also known as the CAATSA Report or "Putin list", was a list published by the U.S. Treasury Department in 2018. It contained the names of 210 prominent Russians, including members of the government of Russian president Vladimir Putin and alleged Russian oligarchs.
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Putinisation
Putinisation, a term popularised by Martin Schulz, a former president of the European Parliament, is a perceived movement away from liberal democracy in certain Eastern European countries in imitation of the regime of Vladimir Putin in Russia. The process of reforming from an authoritarian rule to a liberal democracy is known as deputinisation.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Putin visit China by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 76% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $132 if YES resolves true — a 32% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$107K in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will Putin visit China by May 31?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 76%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Putin visit China by May 31?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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