Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| European Union | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| India | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| Canada | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| Brazil | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| Japan | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| Indonesia | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| Argentina | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| Vietnam | 13% YES | 88% NO |
The question hinges on whether the Trump administration will negotiate and ratify new free trade agreements with any country or regional bloc before the end of 2026. This requires both executive negotiation and either Senate ratification (two-thirds majority) or passage as a Congressional-Executive Agreement. The 12% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects scepticism about completing this process within the timeframe, despite Trump's stated commitment to bilateral trade deals during his previous term.
Historical precedent suggests the bar is high. During Trump's first presidency (2017–2021), only three major trade agreements reached law: the USMCA (replacing NAFTA, ratified January 2020), a limited agreement with South Korea, and phase-one deals with China and Japan that operated as executive agreements rather than formal FTAs. The USMCA took roughly two years from signing to ratification. Current geopolitical tensions, divided Congressional dynamics, and the compressed timeline until end-2026 all weigh against rapid completion, explaining why the crowd has priced this as a low-probability event.
Traders should monitor administration announcements regarding negotiation priorities—particularly around India, the UK, and ASEAN nations, which have been mentioned as potential partners. The pace of actual negotiations and any formal signing ceremonies will signal intent, though these rarely translate to ratification within months. Congressional calendar constraints, particularly around election cycles in 2026, may further compress the window for legislative action. Recent reporting indicates the administration is prioritising tariff policy over formal FTA negotiations in its opening months, which could reduce the likelihood of new deals reaching law by year-end.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$268K in lifetime turnover and $167K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $35 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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