Trade: US x Cuba economic deal by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $8K
- Total Volume
- $216K
- 24h Volume
- $320
- Open Interest
- $20K
Market outcomes
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
Market context
The question concerns whether the United States and Cuba will reach an official economic agreement—covering trade, tariffs, sanctions relief, or modifications to the longstanding embargo—by 30 June 2026. Such an agreement would need to be publicly announced and mutually recognised by both governments to qualify. The current order book on Polymarket reflects zero probability, indicating traders assess near-zero likelihood of a formal deal within the settlement window.
The 0% implied probability sits against a backdrop of six decades of US-Cuba estrangement. The Obama administration's 2014–2015 normalisation effort produced diplomatic recognition and some sanctions easing but fell short of comprehensive trade agreements. Trump reversed course in 2017, tightening restrictions. The Biden administration has maintained most Trump-era restrictions whilst allowing limited humanitarian remittances and charter flights. No administration has successfully negotiated a binding economic accord, and congressional opposition to lifting the embargo remains substantial among both parties.
Catalysts for movement would include a shift in US domestic politics—particularly if Congress changed composition or presidential priorities altered—or a significant diplomatic initiative from either side. The incoming Trump administration's stance on Cuba policy remains unclear, though historical positions suggest scepticism toward normalisation. Any formal negotiation announcement, congressional signalling on embargo legislation, or high-level diplomatic engagement would be material signals. The 30-month window extends through two US election cycles, but absent explicit policy reversal or congressional action, the structural barriers to a qualifying agreement remain formidable.
Wikipedia Context
-
US-Cuba Democracy PAC
The US-Cuba Democracy PAC is an American special interest group that lobbies the United States Congress and White House with the stated goal of "promoting an unconditional transition in Cuba to democracy, the rule of law, and the free market."
-
Cuba–United States relationsModern diplomatic relations between Cuba and the United States are cold, stemming from historic conflict and divergent political ideologies. The two nations restored diplomatic relations on July 20, 2015, after relations had been severed in 1961 during the Cold War. The U.S. has maintained a comprehensive trade embargo against Cuba since 1960. The embargo in
-
Cuban thawThe Cuban thaw was a normalization of Cuba–United States relations from July 2015 to June 2017, ending a 54-year stretch of hostility between the nations. In March 2016, Barack Obama became the first U.S. president to visit Cuba since Calvin Coolidge in 1928. The diplomatic détente was reversed by the U.S. government under president Donald Trump due to a var
-
US Catanzaro 1929Unione Sportiva Catanzaro 1929, or simply Catanzaro, is a professional football club based in Catanzaro, Calabria, Italy, that competes in Serie B, the second tier of the Italian football, following a 17-year absence.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "US x Cuba economic deal by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$216K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $320 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "US x Cuba economic deal by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: