Trade: US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $14K
- Total Volume
- $13K
- 24h Volume
- $756
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| US x China tariff agreement by December 31? | 74% YES | 27% NO |
Market context
The question centres on whether the United States and China will reach a formal, publicly announced tariff agreement by the end of 2026. The definition requires a mutual accord rather than unilateral moves, and the agreement need only be announced—not implemented—to trigger a Yes resolution. The 74% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects trader conviction that such a deal is more likely than not within the next two years, though the substantial 26% No position indicates material uncertainty about negotiations succeeding.
Historical precedent suggests both optimism and caution are warranted. The Phase One trade deal signed in January 2020 demonstrated that formal agreements between the two nations are achievable, even amid broader strategic competition. However, the subsequent failure to reach Phase Two, combined with escalating tariffs under successive administrations, shows how fragile these arrangements can be. The structural tensions—intellectual property disputes, industrial subsidies, technology restrictions—remain largely unresolved, making comprehensive agreements difficult to negotiate.
Near-term catalysts will shape trader positioning significantly. Any shift in US administration policy toward China, scheduled bilateral meetings, or public statements from trade negotiators warrant close monitoring. Recent reporting from Reuters and other outlets has highlighted ongoing tensions over semiconductor restrictions and agricultural market access, both potential sticking points. The 2026 timeline gives negotiators roughly two years, sufficient for formal talks but tight given the complexity of previous negotiations. Traders should watch for signals about whether either side views a deal as strategically advantageous before year-end, as political calendars and economic conditions could shift incentives substantially.
Wikipedia Context
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US-China Business Council
The US-China Business Council (USCBC) is a 501(c)(6) nonprofit organization whose stated goal is promoting trade between the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC). As of 2024, it comprises over 270 American companies that trade and do business with the PRC.
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US-China University Presidents Roundtable
The US-China University Presidents Roundtable is a biennial international conference gathering of the presidents and chancellors from leading U.S. and Chinese universities.
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China–United States relationsThe relationship between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the United States (US) has been complex and at times tense since the establishment of the PRC on 1 October 1949 and subsequent retreat of the government of the Republic of China to Taiwan. After the normalization of relations in the 1970s, the US–China relationship has been marked by persisten
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China–United States trade war
An economic conflict between China and the United States has been ongoing since January 2018, when US president Donald Trump began imposing tariffs and other trade barriers on China with the aim of forcing it to make changes to what the US has said are longstanding unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft. The first Trump administration stated
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "US x China tariff agreement by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 74% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $135 if YES resolves true — a 35% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$13K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $756 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "US x China tariff agreement by December 31?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 74%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "US x China tariff agreement by December 31?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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