Trade: Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $10K
- Total Volume
- $90K
- 24h Volume
- $4
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| December 31, 2025 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 31, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 37% YES | 64% NO |
Market context
Sudan's civil war, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has killed an estimated 150,000 people and displaced over 10 million. The conflict has resisted multiple ceasefire attempts, including agreements brokered by Saudi Arabia and the United States, with both sides repeatedly violating terms within days of announcement. The market requires a formal, publicly announced, mutually agreed ceasefire agreement by 31 December 2025—a notably high bar that excludes humanitarian pauses or informal arrangements.
The 0% implied probability reflects the structural obstacles to negotiation. Previous ceasefire collapses stemmed from fundamental disagreements over integration of the RSF into state institutions, territorial control of Khartoum, and international mediation frameworks. Neither party has demonstrated willingness to compromise on core demands, and the SAF's recent military gains in some regions have reduced pressure to negotiate. Comparable regional conflicts—Yemen's civil war, Syria's fragmentation—show that formal ceasefires often require exhaustion or external intervention at scale.
Traders should monitor announcements from the African Union, UN Security Council sessions, and statements from regional powers including Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Recent reporting from Reuters and Al Jazeera indicates limited diplomatic momentum heading into 2025. The resolution window extends to end-2025, meaning any agreement must be formally announced within eleven months for a "Yes" settlement.
Wikipedia Context
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Sudan Civil Aviation Authority
The Sudan Civil Aviation Authority is the civil aviation authority of Sudan. The head office is in Khartoum but due to the ongoing war in khartoum has been moved temporarily to Port Sudan.
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Sudanese civil war (2023–present)Since April 2023, there has been a civil war in Sudan between two primary factions of the country's military government. The conflict involves the internationally recognized government, controlled by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Hemedti, who commands
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Sudanese Civil War
The term Sudanese Civil War refers to at least three separate conflicts, intermittently ongoing for more than 70 years, in Sudan:First Sudanese Civil War (1955–1972) Second Sudanese Civil War (1983–2005) Sudanese civil war (2023–present)
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Sulla's civil war
Sulla's civil war was fought between the Roman general Sulla and his opponents, the Cinna-Marius faction, in the years 83–82 BC. The war ended with a decisive battle just outside Rome itself. After the war the victorious Sulla made himself dictator of the Roman Republic.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$90K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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