Trade: Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

Market context

Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te faces a formal impeachment motion in the Legislative Yuan before 30 June 2026. The motion requires a two-thirds majority to pass, meaning at least 150 of 225 legislators must vote in favour. Currently, Lai's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) holds 51 seats, whilst the opposition Chinese Unification Promotion Party and China Unification Promotion Party collectively control sufficient seats to theoretically initiate proceedings. However, impeaching a sitting president remains exceptionally rare in Taiwan's constitutional history. Only one presidential impeachment motion has reached a vote since 1996—against Chen Shui-bian in 2006—and it failed decisively. The 3% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects this historical precedent: absent extraordinary circumstances, the political arithmetic and institutional inertia make successful impeachment highly unlikely within the timeframe.

Traders should monitor several catalysts. Significant corruption allegations or major policy failures could shift the calculus, though no such developments have emerged as of early 2025. The opposition's internal cohesion matters considerably; sustained coordination between fragmented opposition blocs would be necessary to reach the supermajority threshold. Taiwan's local elections and any cross-strait tensions could alter political dynamics. Additionally, any formal impeachment motion filed in the Legislative Yuan would be publicly announced, providing clear signalling. The Constitutional Court's separate impeachment trial process—which occurs after Legislative Yuan approval—is irrelevant to this market's resolution, which requires only the initial legislative motion to pass.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 2% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $5000 if YES resolves true — a 4900% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$16K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.

The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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