Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between CF Montréal and Orlando City SC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CF Montréal | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Orlando City SC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
CF Montréal will travel to face Orlando City SC in Major League Soccer on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The match forms part of the regular season fixture list and will conclude at approximately 20:30 UTC. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating that traders are pricing this event as certain to occur.
MLS fixtures at this stage of the season carry minimal cancellation risk. Historical precedent shows that regular-season matches scheduled for May rarely fail to take place; weather disruptions in North America during early May are infrequent, and neither club operates in regions prone to extreme conditions at that time. The 100% probability reflects standard market behaviour for established sporting events with firm scheduling and no material force majeure concerns. Comparable MLS games settling in May across prior years have similarly shown high certainty once the fixture calendar is published.
Traders should monitor squad availability and injury reports in the weeks preceding the match, particularly any late withdrawals or roster changes that might affect team composition. Fixture postponements in MLS remain exceptionally rare once officially scheduled, though weather alerts for the Orlando region in early May warrant tracking. Any announcement from either club regarding ground conditions or operational disruptions would represent the primary catalyst for market movement. Current Polymarket order book depth will reflect any material news flow as the settlement date approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$232K in lifetime turnover and $472K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $230K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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