Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between England and Croatia, scheduled for June 17, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the England vs. Croatia match originally scheduled for June 17, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-1 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-3 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-2 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
England and Croatia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 4:00 PM ET. This market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 7% probability for a specific scoreline, reflecting the difficulty of predicting precise match outcomes in tournament football.
Exact-score markets in football typically carry low probabilities for any single result because dozens of plausible outcomes exist. Historical precedent from previous World Cup tournaments shows that even heavily favoured scorelines rarely exceed 15–20% implied probability. England and Croatia last met in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, which England lost 2–1 after extra time; their group-stage encounter in 2026 will depend heavily on both teams' form, squad composition, and tournament trajectory by mid-June. The 7% figure currently priced suggests the market is distributing probability across multiple likely scorelines rather than concentrating it on any single result.
Key variables affecting settlement include squad availability and injury status, which typically crystallise in the weeks before the tournament, and the specific group composition that determines each team's tactical approach. England's recent tournament performances and Croatia's ageing squad post-2018 will inform pre-match analysis. Traders should monitor official FIFA announcements regarding fixture scheduling and any changes to the tournament format, though the 2026 structure remains confirmed as of current planning.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "England vs. Croatia - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$183 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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