Ftse

Trade: FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on May 6?

100% YES 0% NO

Opened 5 May 2026 · Settles 6 May 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for FTSE 100 (UKX) on Wednesday, May 6, 2026 is higher than the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for UKX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for FTSE 100 (UKX) on Wednesday, May 6, 2026 is lower than the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for UKX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $561
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $404

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Market outcomes

FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on May 6?

100% YES

0% NO

Market context

The FTSE 100 will close on Wednesday, 6 May 2026 either above or below its prior trading day's settlement. This single-day directional bet reflects the index's intraday volatility and overnight developments between the comparison dates. The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book suggests either extreme confidence in upward momentum or minimal liquidity at current pricing, a common pattern for binary daily moves where one outcome dominates early trading activity.

Daily index movements of this nature historically resolve based on macroeconomic data releases, central bank communications, and corporate earnings announcements falling within the settlement window. The FTSE 100's composition—weighted heavily towards financials, mining, and multinational corporates—means sterling strength, commodity prices, and broader European sentiment drive single-day swings. Comparable single-day resolution markets show that when implied probabilities reach 100%, they typically reflect either genuine directional consensus or thin order books awaiting counter-liquidity; actual outcomes distribute more evenly than such extremes suggest.

Traders should monitor the Bank of England's policy stance and any UK economic data scheduled for early May 2026, alongside European Central Bank decisions that influence cross-border capital flows. Earnings season timing and commodity price movements—particularly oil and precious metals—will shape institutional positioning. The settlement window closes at 20:00 GMT on 6 May, allowing for post-market clarification of the official closing price. Current pricing warrants scrutiny given the absence of obvious catalysts that would justify near-certain directional conviction.

Wikipedia Context

FTSE 100 Index
The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index, also called the FTSE 100 Index, FTSE 100, FTSE or, informally, the "Footsie", is the United Kingdom's best-known stock market index and represents the 100 most highly capitalised blue chips listed on the London Stock Exchange.
FTSE 250 Index
The Financial Times Stock Exchange 250 Index, also called the FTSE 250 Index, FTSE 250, or, informally, the "Footsie 250", is a stock market index that consists of the 101st to the 350th mid-cap blue chip companies listed on the London Stock Exchange.
FTSE 350 Index
The Financial Times Stock Exchange 350 Index, also called the FTSE 350 Index, FTSE 350, is a market capitalization weighted stock market index made up of the constituents of the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices. The FTSE 100 Index comprises the largest 100 companies by capitalization which have their primary listing on the London Stock Exchange, while the FTSE
FTS2000
Federal Telecommunications System 2000 (FTS2000) is a long distance telecommunications service for the United States federal government, including services such as switched voice service for voice or data up to 4.8 kbit/s, switched data at 56 kbit/s and 64 kbit/s, switched digital integrated service for voice, data, image, and video up to 1.544 Mbit/s, packe

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on May 6?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 100% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $100 if YES resolves true — a 0% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$561 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ftse contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on May 6?"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on May 6?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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