Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix, scheduled for May 24, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Pierre Gasly | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Fernando Alonso | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Alexander Albon | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Sergio Perez | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Charles Leclerc | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Esteban Ocon | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Lando Norris | 16% YES | 85% NO |
The 2026 Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix will take place on 24 May at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal. The race forms part of the 2026 F1 calendar and will determine a single winner whose name appears in the FIA's official Final Classification. Settlement depends on the race concluding by 31 May; any cancellation or rescheduling beyond that date triggers resolution to "Other." The current order book shows 0% implied probability, reflecting either minimal trading activity or a technical state where no bids have yet been placed for any driver option.
Historical context suggests Canadian Grand Prix markets typically see meaningful probability distribution once the 2026 season approaches and driver lineups solidify. The Montreal circuit has produced varied outcomes across recent seasons, with weather conditions and safety car deployments often shaping results. Comparable F1 race markets on Polymarket show probability concentration among drivers from leading teams, though mid-field and underdog positions retain non-trivial odds depending on car performance and qualifying position.
Traders should monitor 2026 pre-season testing results, team performance data from early-season races, and any weather forecasts as May approaches. Driver changes, technical regulation shifts, or team partnerships announced between now and spring 2026 will influence relative probabilities. The settlement window closes 31 May at 20:00 UTC, providing a narrow margin after the scheduled race end; delays or postponements create execution risk for this market.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Canadian Grand Prix: Driver Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$48K in lifetime turnover and $72K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for formula1 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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