Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix, scheduled for May 23, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 30, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Alpine | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Aston Martin | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Williams | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Audi Revolut | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Cadillac | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Ferrari | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| Tgr Haas | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Mclaren Mastercard | 27% YES | 74% NO |
The 2026 Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix takes place at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal on 23 May 2026. This market settles on which constructor achieves pole position during qualifying for that race. The settlement window closes 30 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC, with resolution based on FIA official qualifying results. The current order book implies a 4% probability for the YES outcome, reflecting the distributed nature of pole position across the grid's competitive field.
Historically, pole position at Montreal has been contested by the sport's leading constructors, with Mercedes, Red Bull, and Ferrari dominating recent qualifying sessions at the venue. The 4% implied probability suggests traders are pricing in a fragmented market where no single constructor is favoured as a clear pole-position favourite at this stage. With two seasons of development remaining before 2026, the current probability reflects genuine uncertainty about the competitive order, particularly given the significant regulation changes scheduled for that season.
Traders should monitor the 2026 power unit development announcements from engine manufacturers, as these will substantially shape qualifying pace. The FIA's finalisation of technical regulations, expected through 2025, will clarify aerodynamic and chassis constraints. Track conditions at Montreal—notably variable weather and the street circuit's sensitivity to setup—can amplify qualifying variance. Any changes to the race calendar or circuit modifications would affect the settlement window, though the current schedule remains stable.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Canadian Grand Prix: Constructor Pole Position" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$462 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for formula1 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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