Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 50+ bps decrease | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| No change | 79% YES | 21% NO |
| 50+ bps increase | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 25 bps decrease | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| 25 bps increase | 10% YES | 91% NO |
The Federal Reserve's September 2026 FOMC meeting will determine whether the upper bound of the target federal funds rate changes from its current level. The 4% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects minimal expectation of any rate adjustment—whether a cut, hold, or hike—at that specific gathering. This probability is being formed by traders pricing the likelihood that the Fed will announce a basis-point change in September 2026, with outcomes rounded to the nearest 25bp bracket if needed.
Historical precedent suggests that inter-meeting rate decisions are uncommon outside crisis conditions. The Fed typically adjusts rates at scheduled FOMC meetings rather than between them, and September gatherings have not been exceptional venues for surprise moves in normal economic cycles. The current 4% reading aligns with baseline expectations that any monetary policy shift will either occur at a different scheduled meeting or that economic conditions will not warrant action in September 2026 specifically.
Traders monitoring this market should track labour market reports, inflation data releases, and Fed communications in the months preceding September. The Fed's forward guidance and any shifts in economic forecasts—particularly around growth, unemployment, and price pressures—will shape expectations for that month's decision. Recent Fed statements and the trajectory of prior FOMC decisions will establish the baseline against which September's meeting is priced, whilst any unexpected economic deterioration or inflationary surge could materially alter the current low probability.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Fed Decision in September?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$52K in lifetime turnover and $181K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for fomc contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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