Trade: WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on May 12?

Market context

WTI crude oil will settle on 12 May 2026 at a specific closing price. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 11% probability that this closing price will exceed a particular threshold, suggesting traders view such an outcome as unlikely given prevailing market conditions and forward expectations. This probability is formed through continuous order placement and matching across the platform's liquidity pools, with each trade adjusting the implied odds.

Historical volatility in WTI pricing shows that extreme single-day moves or sustained price rallies require significant catalysts—typically geopolitical disruption, unexpected supply shocks, or major shifts in demand forecasts. Over the past two years, WTI has traded between roughly $65 and $95 per barrel during normal market conditions, with moves beyond these ranges occurring primarily during crisis periods or following OPEC+ production announcements. The 11% probability suggests the market is pricing in a scenario that would require material deviation from consensus expectations by May 2026.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch for OPEC+ production decisions, which typically influence medium-term crude trajectories, alongside US inventory data releases and geopolitical developments affecting supply routes. The US Energy Information Administration publishes weekly petroleum status reports that often move crude markets, whilst any escalation in Middle Eastern tensions or unexpected refinery outages could shift the probability materially. Currency movements, particularly dollar strength, also influence WTI pricing since crude is dollar-denominated globally.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on May 12?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$304 in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.

Last 24 hours alone saw $304 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

Related prediction markets

Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram:

• All finance prediction markets
• How prediction markets work
• Browse all prediction markets on PolyGram
• Top prediction market traders
• Back to PolyGram home