Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit Week of May 11 2026?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ $6.50 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| ↑ $6.25 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| ↑ $6.00 | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| ↑ $5.75 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| ↑ $5.50 | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| ↑ $5.25 | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| ↑ $5.00 | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| ↓ $4.75 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Opendoor Technologies, the iBuying platform that purchases homes directly from sellers, will either reach or exceed a specific price target during the week of 11 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 5% probability, reflecting substantial scepticism amongst traders that the stock will achieve the threshold within that narrow five-day window.
Historical precedent suggests such weekly price targets for established equities are rarely hit by chance alone. Opendoor's share price has experienced volatility tied to housing market conditions, mortgage rates, and quarterly earnings surprises, but reaching a predetermined level in a specific week requires either a significant catalyst or an unlikely confluence of intraday momentum. Comparable prediction markets on tech and real estate stocks show that single-week price targets typically settle YES only when material news—earnings beats, strategic announcements, or sector-wide rallies—coincides with the settlement window.
Traders monitoring this contract should track Opendoor's Q1 2026 earnings release timing, any announcements regarding market expansion or capital raises, and broader housing sentiment data. Mortgage rate movements and housing starts figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau can shift investor appetite for iBuying stocks. The 5% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that absent an unexpected announcement or sharp sector rotation, the stock is unlikely to move sufficiently in that particular week to satisfy the resolution criteria.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.OPEN%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "What will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit Week of May 11 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$649 in lifetime turnover and $47K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $318 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.OPEN%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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