Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in June 2026?
Macro and financial markets price events that move both prediction markets and the underlying assets: rate decisions, GDP prints, jobs reports. Current odds favour the YES side at 50%, making this a coinflip market with 34 days to resolution — long enough that information asymmetry can still move the line meaningfully, backed by $534 of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ $4.40 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| ↑ $4.20 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| ↑ $4.00 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| ↑ $3.80 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| ↑ $3.60 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| ↑ $3.40 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| ↑ $3.20 | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| ↓ $3.00 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Natural gas futures will settle based on the price level reached during June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50% implied probability, suggesting the market is pricing meaningful uncertainty around whether a specific price threshold will be breached during that month. The settlement window closes on 1 July 2026, capturing the full calendar month of June.
Historical volatility in natural gas prices provides context for interpreting current positioning. Between 2020 and 2023, Henry Hub spot prices ranged from lows near $2 per million British thermal units to peaks above $9, with seasonal summer weakness typical as heating demand falls. The 2022–2023 period saw elevated prices driven by European supply disruptions and LNG export constraints, though prices have since normalised. A 50–50 split on the order book suggests traders are divided on whether June 2026 will see prices cluster above or below a particular level, reflecting genuine disagreement rather than consensus.
Traders should monitor liquefied natural gas export capacity utilisation, particularly any maintenance schedules at major US terminals scheduled for spring or early summer 2026. Weather forecasts issued in May will influence cooling demand expectations. Regulatory developments affecting production—including potential changes to drilling permits or pipeline infrastructure—could shift supply dynamics. Oil price movements remain correlated with LNG contract pricing, particularly for Asian and European buyers. Any announcements regarding Russian or Middle Eastern supply disruptions would carry outsized weight given their influence on global LNG markets and US export volumes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 1 July 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Macro-finance markets resolve from the BLS, FOMC, or other official statistical releases — payout timing aligns to the release time and clears within the dispute window in over 96% of cases. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in June 2026?", macro-finance markets are densest in the final hour before a release (FOMC, CPI, NFP) — book depth often exceeds $50k of liquidity at the touch in that window.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($534 of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in June 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $534 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in June 2026?", the considerations above apply directly — Macro-finance markets are scheduled events — the binary nature of the payoff means even a small statistical surprise (e.g. CPI 0.1pp above consensus) can resolve the entire position. Trade size should reflect the headline-shock potential of the underlying release.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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