Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in May 2026?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ $495 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| ↑ $480 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| ↑ $465 | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| ↑ $450 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| ↑ $435 | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| ↓ $420 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ $405 | 81% YES | 19% NO |
| ↓ $390 | 40% YES | 61% NO |
Microsoft's share price will either reach or exceed a specific threshold during May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices this event at 8% probability, reflecting trader consensus that the outcome is unlikely within the settlement window. This low implied probability suggests either a substantial price movement would be required or the market perceives structural headwinds to such a move occurring in that particular month.
Historical precedent offers context for interpreting this pricing. Microsoft's volatility has typically ranged between 25–35% annualised over recent years, with monthly moves of 5–10% commonplace during earnings seasons or major product announcements. The company's share price has demonstrated sensitivity to broader technology sector rotations, cloud infrastructure demand signals, and artificial intelligence capability announcements. Previous May periods have seen modest seasonal patterns, though earnings calls and guidance revisions have occasionally driven outsized moves. The 8% probability embedded in the order book reflects a threshold that would require either a significant positive catalyst or a multi-month uptrend to materialise within a single month.
Traders monitoring this contract should track Microsoft's quarterly earnings announcements, cloud revenue growth metrics, and any strategic partnerships or product launches scheduled for spring 2026. Macroeconomic conditions affecting technology valuations, Federal Reserve policy signals, and competitive developments in enterprise software and cloud services will influence the underlying share price trajectory. The settlement window closes on 1 June 2026, giving traders approximately one month of May trading activity to assess whether conditions align with the threshold being breached.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in May 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$36K in lifetime turnover and $103K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $874 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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