Trade: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 2026 on May 14?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 14?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $36K
- Total Volume
- $3K
- 24h Volume
- $3K
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| $765 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $750 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| $760 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| $755 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| $745 | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| $740 | 69% YES | 32% NO |
| $735 | 93% YES | 7% NO |
| $730 | 95% YES | 5% NO |
Market context
The S&P 500 tracking ETF SPY will close on 14 May 2026 at some price level; this market asks whether that closing price will exceed a specific threshold. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 1% implied probability for a YES outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in an exceptionally tight range or a price point well above consensus expectations for that date. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on the specified date, capturing the standard US equity market close.
Historical volatility in the S&P 500 over single-day moves provides context for reading this probability. Daily moves exceeding 2–3% occur roughly 5–10 times annually under normal market conditions; larger single-day rallies typically require significant positive catalysts such as Federal Reserve policy shifts, corporate earnings surprises, or geopolitical de-escalation. The 1% probability suggests the threshold is positioned at an extreme percentile of expected price action, or that market participants are factoring in a baseline scenario of consolidation or modest decline leading into mid-May 2026.
Traders monitoring this contract should track scheduled economic data releases in the weeks prior—particularly inflation reports, employment figures, and any Fed communications that could shift equity risk appetite. Corporate earnings seasons typically conclude by mid-May, so late-quarter guidance revisions may influence positioning. Currency movements, particularly USD strength, and developments in major geopolitical tensions would also influence whether SPY reaches the specified level. The order book depth and bid-ask spreads on Polymarket will tighten as the settlement date approaches, reflecting convergence toward realised price action.
Wikipedia Context
-
S&P 500S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 leading companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices and includes approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of U.S. public companies, with an aggregate market cap of more than $61.1 trillion as of December 31, 2
-
S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats
The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats is a stock market index composed of the companies in the S&P 500 index that have increased their dividends in each of the past 25 consecutive years. It was launched in May 2005.
-
S&P 500 futures
S&P 500 Futures are financial futures which allow an investor to hedge with or speculate on the future value of various components of the S&P 500 Index market index. S&P 500 futures contracts were first introduced by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 1982. The CME added the e-mini option in 1997. The bundle of stocks in the S&P 500 is, per the name, compose
-
List of S&P 500 companiesThe S&P 500 is a stock market index maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices. It comprises 503 common stocks which are issued by 500 large-cap companies traded on American stock exchanges. The index includes about 80 percent of the American market by capitalization. It is weighted by free-float market capitalization, so more valuable companies account for relativ
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 2026 on May 14?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3K in lifetime turnover and $36K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 2026 on May 14?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: