Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for June 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? | 94% YES | 7% NO |
This market compares the private valuation of SpaceX against Tesla's public market capitalisation as of 30 June 2026. SpaceX remains unlisted but receives periodic valuation updates through secondary market transactions and funding rounds, with the most recent significant valuation occurring in late 2024. Tesla trades on Nasdaq and will have a definitive closing price on the settlement date. The 94% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong conviction that SpaceX's private valuation will exceed Tesla's public market cap at that point.
Historical precedent suggests substantial scepticism of private valuations outpacing large-cap public companies. Aramco's 2019 IPO priced at $1.7 trillion, below pre-IPO expectations, whilst most unicorn-stage private companies have seen valuations compress upon or before public listing. SpaceX's last known valuation approached $180 billion in 2024, whilst Tesla's current market capitalisation exceeds $800 billion. For SpaceX to surpass Tesla by mid-2026 would require either dramatic appreciation in SpaceX's private valuation or significant Tesla depreciation—a shift that would contradict the confidence embedded in current pricing.
Traders should monitor SpaceX funding announcements and any secondary market transactions that establish new valuation benchmarks before the settlement date. Tesla's quarterly earnings and broader EV market dynamics will influence its public valuation trajectory. The reliance on NPM pricing introduces execution risk; if NPM fails to publish data by 1 July 2026, resolution extends to 4 July, creating potential for market volatility during the extended window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$15K in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 94%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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