Trade: Meta (META) closes above 2026 on June 3?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on June 3 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $16K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| $580 | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| $590 | 92% YES | 9% NO |
| $600 | 73% YES | 28% NO |
| $610 | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| $620 | 18% YES | 83% NO |
Market context
Meta Platforms' share price on 3 June 2026 will determine this market's resolution. The 77% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects current positioning around whether META closes above a specified threshold on that date. Order book depth and recent trading activity shape this probability; wider bid-ask spreads typically indicate lower conviction among market participants, whilst tighter spreads suggest consensus. The current probability sits notably above the 50% midpoint, suggesting the crowd expects upward price action or that the strike price lies below recent trading ranges.
Historical volatility in META shares provides context for evaluating this probability. Meta's stock has experienced significant swings tied to quarterly earnings releases, regulatory developments, and shifts in digital advertising demand. A 77% probability implies the market prices in a moderately bullish scenario—neither a dramatic rally nor a substantial decline. Comparable tech-sector price targets typically see 70%+ probabilities when strikes sit 5–10% above current spot prices, suggesting this threshold may reflect near-term support or recent consolidation levels.
Traders should monitor Meta's earnings calendar, any regulatory announcements from the FTC or international bodies, and broader technology sector momentum through early June 2026. Advertising market conditions and macroeconomic data releases in the weeks preceding the settlement date will likely influence positioning. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 3 June, using the official closing price or last valid on-exchange trade if trading halts occur.
Wikipedia Context
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MetaphysicsMetaphysics is the branch of philosophy that examines the basic structure of reality. It is traditionally seen as the study of mind-independent features of the world, but some theorists view it as an inquiry into the conceptual framework of human understanding. Some philosophers, including Aristotle, designate metaphysics as the first philosophy to suggest t
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Metá MetáMetá Metá is a Brazilian jazz band from São Paulo created in 2008 and formed by the trio Juçara Marçal (vocals), Kiko Dinucci (guitar) and Thiago França (saxophone).
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MetamaterialA metamaterial is an engineered material whose properties arise not from the chemical composition of its base substances, but from their deliberately designed internal structure. These properties are often rare or absent in naturally occurring materials. Metamaterials are typically fashioned from multiple materials, such as metals and plastics, and arranged
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Metamemory
Metamemory or Socratic awareness, a type of metacognition, is both the introspective knowledge of one's own memory capabilities and the processes involved in memory self-monitoring. This self-awareness of memory has important implications for how people learn and use memories. When studying, for example, students make judgments of whether they have successfu
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Meta (META) closes above 2026 on June 3?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Meta (META) closes above 2026 on June 3?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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