Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <1,900 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 1,900-2,000 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 2,000-2,100 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 2,100-2,200 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| 2,200-2,300 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| 2,300-2,400 | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| 2,400-2,500 | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| 2,500-2,600 | 8% YES | 93% NO |
This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT pair's noon ET close on 17 May 2026, roughly eighteen months from now. The 3% implied probability reflects substantial uncertainty about where Ethereum will trade at that specific moment, with the order book currently pricing a "No" resolution as heavily favoured. Settlement depends on the precise closing price of the 1-minute candle at 12:00 ET, sourced directly from Binance's published data.
Ethereum's price volatility over multi-year horizons provides context for interpreting this low probability. Between May 2021 and May 2022, ETH moved from approximately $2,800 to $1,900—a 32% decline. From May 2022 to May 2023, it recovered to roughly $1,850, then climbed to $2,500 by May 2024. These swings illustrate that eighteen-month price movements are substantial and directionally uncertain. The current 3% probability suggests the market is pricing in either a very specific price target or considerable scepticism about the resolution criteria being met precisely.
Traders monitoring this contract should track Ethereum's macroeconomic dependencies, including broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, regulatory developments affecting layer-1 protocols, and Ethereum's technical roadmap execution. The Shanghai and Dencun upgrades demonstrated how network improvements can influence price trajectories. Additionally, Bitcoin's performance typically correlates with Ethereum's, making BTC movements a leading indicator. Any significant announcements regarding Ethereum's scaling solutions or changes to staking economics could shift market expectations substantially over the settlement window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum price on May 17?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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