Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <1,800 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1,800-1,900 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 1,900-2,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 2,000-2,100 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 2,100-2,200 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| 2,200-2,300 | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| 2,300-2,400 | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| 2,400-2,500 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT pair's noon ET closing price on 14 May 2026, roughly eighteen months forward. The 0% implied probability reflects the current order book on Polymarket, where no traders have yet committed capital to YES positions at any price bracket, leaving the market entirely on the bid side. With such an extended settlement window, the absence of trading activity is typical for distant-dated crypto markets where participants prefer shorter timeframes with clearer catalysts.
Ethereum's historical volatility provides context for reading this probability structure. Over comparable twelve-to-eighteen-month periods, ETH has traded across ranges exceeding 100% moves in either direction—from the 2020–2021 bull cycle to the 2022 bear market and subsequent recovery. Long-dated markets on Polymarket typically remain illiquid until three to six months before settlement, when traders begin positioning around concrete technical levels and macro conditions become more discernible.
Near-term catalysts shaping Ethereum's trajectory include network upgrades, regulatory developments around staking and proof-of-stake mechanisms, and macroeconomic conditions affecting risk appetite for digital assets. The Dencun upgrade in early 2024 reduced transaction costs materially; future protocol changes remain on Ethereum's roadmap. Traders monitoring this market should track announcements from the Ethereum Foundation, movements in Bitcoin (which typically correlates with ETH), and shifts in institutional adoption signals from major exchanges and custodians.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum price on May 14?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $109 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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