Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <1,900 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1,900-2,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,000-2,100 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,100-2,200 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 2,200-2,300 | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| 2,300-2,400 | 73% YES | 28% NO |
| 2,400-2,500 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| 2,500-2,600 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT spot price at the 12:00 noon ET candle close on 12 May 2026. The 0% implied probability reflects the current order book on Polymarket, where no traders are willing to back any specific price bracket at present valuations. With over eighteen months until settlement, the market remains illiquid, typical for distant-dated cryptocurrency price brackets where uncertainty compounds significantly.
Historical precedent suggests Ethereum's intraday volatility and longer-term directional moves both influence noon-hour spot prices. Between May 2024 and May 2025, ETH ranged from roughly $1,600 to $4,000, demonstrating the scale of potential price movement across a single year. Comparable Polymarket brackets for cryptocurrency prices typically see activity cluster around major technical levels and round numbers, though liquidity for 2026 settlement dates remains sparse until nearer the resolution window.
Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic policy announcements, particularly US Federal Reserve decisions and inflation data releases, alongside Ethereum-specific developments including network upgrades, regulatory clarity on digital assets, and shifts in institutional adoption. Recent volatility has often followed broader equity market movements and cryptocurrency sentiment cycles. The extended settlement window means early positioning carries substantial carry costs, whilst late entry risks illiquidity in the order book as the May 2026 date approaches.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum price on May 12?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$19K in lifetime turnover and $159K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $16K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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