Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves The MongolZ's main CS2 roster (defined as players listed with status = "Starter" in the "Players of The MongolZ" table on HLTV: https://www.hltv.org/team/6248/the-mongolz#tab-rosterBox) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active starter roster consists of the following five players: bLitz, Techno, mzinho, 910, and cobrazera. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July? | 47% YES | 53% NO |
The MongolZ, Kazakhstan's leading Counter-Strike 2 organisation, currently fields bLitz, Techno, mzinho, 910, and cobrazera as their starter roster. The market settles affirmatively if any of these five players depart or are replaced before 30 June 2026. The current 47% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects meaningful uncertainty about roster stability over the next eighteen months, with traders pricing in both the possibility of strategic upgrades and the risk of player departures.
Tier-one CS2 rosters typically experience turnover during off-season windows and following major tournament underperformance. The MongolZ have competed consistently at international events, reaching playoffs at recent majors, which historically correlates with lower roster churn than struggling organisations. However, the region's competitive landscape remains volatile; comparable Central Asian rosters have undergone significant changes within similar timeframes, particularly following shifts in sponsorship or coaching staff. The current probability sits near equilibrium, suggesting traders view roster stability as roughly balanced against pressure for changes.
Key catalysts include The MongolZ's performance at upcoming Valve majors and tier-one tournaments through early 2026, which may prompt management to pursue upgrades if results stagnate. Coaching or organisational restructuring announcements would signal heightened change likelihood. Contract expiration cycles, typically clustered around mid-year, create natural windows for departures. Monitor HLTV roster news and official team announcements closely, as changes often emerge through formal channels before market-moving confirmations.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.hltv.org/team/6248/the-mongolz#tab-rosterBox. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$149 in lifetime turnover and $13 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 47%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.hltv.org/team/6248/the-mongolz#tab-rosterBox. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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