Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant match between GIANTX GC and Twisted Minds Orchid in the VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 4 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "GIANTX GC" if GIANTX GC win the match against Twisted Minds Orchid. This market will resolve to "Twisted Minds Orchid" if Twisted Minds Orchid win the match against GIANTX GC. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: TMO (-1.5) vs GIANTX GC (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: GX GC (-1.5) vs Twisted Minds Orchid (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
GIANTX GC and Twisted Minds Orchid are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Valorant match on 4 May at 2:00PM ET as part of the VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stage. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability for GIANTX GC, reflecting either extremely strong market conviction towards Twisted Minds Orchid or illiquidity in the YES position that has compressed pricing to the floor. With the settlement window closing 4 May at 00:30 UTC, traders have limited time to position ahead of the match.
GIANTX GC has established itself as a competitive force within Game Changers EMEA, whilst Twisted Minds Orchid represents the Turkish contingent in the regional circuit. Historical matchups between established Spanish and Turkish organisations in Game Changers have shown variable outcomes, though seeding and recent tournament performance typically correlate with match results. The 0% probability suggests the market has priced in either a substantial skill gap, recent roster changes, or head-to-head data favouring Twisted Minds decisively.
Key variables affecting resolution include match postponement beyond 7 days (which triggers a 50-50 split), technical issues that prevent completion, or an outright cancellation. Traders should monitor official VCT announcements and team social media for any schedule changes or roster updates in the 48 hours preceding the match. The tight settlement window means delays beyond 7 May would automatically resolve the market to a tie, regardless of eventual match outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/remakeval. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: GIANTX GC vs Twisted Minds Orchid (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/remakeval. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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