Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant match between Fennel and QT DIG∞ in the VCL Japan Main Stage, initially scheduled for June 4 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Fennel" if Fennel win the match against QT DIG∞. This market will resolve to "QT DIG∞" if QT DIG∞ win the match against Fennel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 56% YES | 45% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Map Handicap: FL (-1.5) vs QT DIG∞ (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fennel (-2.5) vs QT DIG∞ (+2.5) | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Fennel (-2.5) vs QT DIG∞ (+2.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 52% YES | 48% NO |
Fennel and QT DIG∞ are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Valorant match on the VCL Japan Main Stage on 4 June at 08:00 JST (23:00 UTC 3 June). The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 56% implied probability for Fennel, suggesting the market views them as slight favourites. This probability has formed through recent trading activity and reflects assessments of both teams' current roster strength and recent tournament performance in Japan's competitive Valorant circuit.
Historical context for VCL Japan matches shows that seeding and recent LAN results heavily influence outcomes. Fennel has maintained consistent performances in domestic competition, whilst QT DIG∞ has demonstrated variable results depending on roster stability. The 56% probability sits within the typical range for matches between teams of comparable tier, where neither side commands overwhelming favourite status. Comparable fixtures in regional Japanese esports have often settled near these probability levels when teams lack significant recent head-to-head data or recent tournament results diverge.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any schedule changes through the official VCL Japan communications channels, as player availability has occasionally affected match outcomes in this circuit. The settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC on 4 June, providing a narrow window for late information. Any official postponement beyond 7 days would trigger a 50-50 resolution, creating tail-risk considerations for current positions. Recent team announcements regarding practice schedules or coaching changes could shift the order book before match time.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_jpn. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $23K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_jpn. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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