Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Grand final match between EDward Gaming and XLG Gaming in the VCT China Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 10 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "EDward Gaming" if EDward Gaming win the match against XLG Gaming. This market will resolve to "XLG Gaming" if XLG Gaming win the match against EDward Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: EDG (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Match Winner | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 59% YES | 42% NO |
| Map 3 Winner | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| Map 4 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 91% YES | 9% NO |
EDward Gaming and XLG Gaming will contest the VCT China Playoffs grand final in a best-of-five Valorant match on 10 May 2026. The fixture represents the culmination of China's regional competitive circuit and determines the champion eligible for international circuit points. Settlement occurs at 15:20 UTC, with a seven-day grace period for completion; matches extending beyond that window without a decisive result trigger a 50-50 split resolution.
The current 50-50 implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine competitive parity between the two organisations. EDward Gaming has historically dominated Chinese Valorant, winning multiple regional titles and maintaining consistent top-four finishes at international events. XLG Gaming, however, has demonstrated upward trajectory through 2025, securing playoff positions and defeating higher-seeded opponents in recent domestic tournaments. Historical precedent suggests Chinese regional finals typically favour established organisations, though roster changes and meta shifts can rapidly alter competitive balance within the region's compressed competitive calendar.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and scrim results in the week preceding the match, as last-minute substitutions or injury disclosures could shift probability meaningfully. Patch updates from Riot Games affecting agent viability may favour one team's established playstyle over the other. Schedule adherence matters operationally; any delay approaching the seven-day threshold would collapse the market to 50-50 regardless of match status, creating tail-risk exposure for positions held through that window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorantesports_cn. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$183K in lifetime turnover and $157K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $183K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorantesports_cn. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: