Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket final match between Bilibili Gaming and Nova Esports in the Esports World Cup China Qualifier Stage 1, initially scheduled for May 13 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win the match against Nova Esports. This market will resolve to "Nova Esports" if Nova Esports win the match against Bilibili Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Nova Esports (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Bilibili Gaming and Nova Esports are scheduled to contest the upper bracket final of the Esports World Cup China Qualifier Stage 1 on 13 May at 05:00 ET. The winner advances directly to the grand final, whilst the loser drops to the lower bracket. This best-of-three match represents a critical juncture in the regional qualification pathway for the broader Esports World Cup circuit. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book currently reflects no active trading interest or liquidity at any price level, suggesting either minimal market participation or consensus positioning that warrants monitoring as the event approaches.
Bilibili Gaming has established itself as a consistent performer in Chinese Valorant competitions, regularly contending for top finishes in regional tournaments. Nova Esports, whilst competitive, has historically occupied a secondary tier within the region's ecosystem. Head-to-head records and recent LAN performances provide the primary reference points for assessing relative strength, though roster changes and meta shifts can materially alter competitive dynamics between qualifier stages.
Key catalysts include official confirmation of the match schedule, any roster announcements or substitutions from either organisation, and broader tournament bracket updates. The seven-day delay clause embedded in the resolution criteria creates a specific risk vector; any postponement beyond 12 May without completion triggers a 50-50 settlement. Traders should monitor Chinese esports news outlets and official Valorant Champions Tour announcements for scheduling changes or team-related developments that could shift the competitive calculus.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://vlr.gg. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs Nova Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Stage 1" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$38K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $38K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://vlr.gg. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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