Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Rainbow Six Siege Round 3 match between CAG Osaka and Five Fears in the BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 11 at 3:45PM ET. This market will resolve to "CAG Osaka" if CAG Osaka win the match against Five Fears. This market will resolve to "Five Fears" if Five Fears win the match against CAG Osaka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Game Handicap: 5F (-1.5) vs CAG Osaka (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
CAG Osaka and Five Fears will compete in Round 3 of the BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage, a best-of-three match scheduled for 11 May at 3:45PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 48% implied probability for CAG Osaka's victory, suggesting near-parity between the two sides. This probability has formed through live trading activity and represents the marginal trader's assessment of the matchup given available information about both teams' recent form and the tournament context.
CAG Osaka competes as a Japanese representative in the international Rainbow Six Siege circuit, whilst Five Fears operates within the regional competitive landscape. Historical precedent in R6 esports shows that group stage matches at major BLAST events often reflect genuine competitive uncertainty, particularly when teams from different regions meet. The 48-YES reading indicates traders view this as a genuinely competitive fixture rather than a heavily favoured outcome, consistent with how similar mid-tier international matchups have traded at major tournaments.
Traders should monitor official BLAST communications regarding any schedule adjustments, roster confirmations, or technical delays that could affect the 7-day settlement window. Recent competitive performance data from both teams' qualifying matches and any interim practice results would shift the probability. Equipment or connectivity issues affecting either team during the broadcast window could trigger the tie-resolution clause, though such outcomes remain relatively uncommon in professional R6 competition.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/rainbow6bravo. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Rainbow Six Siege: CAG Osaka vs Five Fears (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/rainbow6bravo. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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