Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Overwatch match between Falcons and VARREL in the OCS Asia Stage 1 Group B, initially scheduled for May 5 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Falcons" if Falcons win the match against VARREL. This market will resolve to "VARREL" if VARREL win the match against Falcons. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Falcons and VARREL are scheduled to compete in a best-of-two Overwatch match within OCS Asia Stage 1 Group B on 5 May 2026 at 07:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for resolution, indicating either exceptionally high confidence in match completion or minimal liquidity depth at current pricing. This extreme probability typically emerges when one outcome appears heavily favoured by the broader market, though the binary nature of esports matches—where upsets remain possible—often creates arbitrage opportunities for informed traders.
Historical precedent in OCS Asia tournaments shows that group-stage matches rarely face cancellation once scheduled, with most disruptions stemming from technical delays rather than outright postponements. However, Overwatch competitive integrity has occasionally been tested by player availability issues and server problems, particularly in regional qualifiers. The seven-day grace period embedded in this market's resolution criteria provides meaningful protection against minor scheduling adjustments, though traders should monitor official OCS communications for any roster changes or technical warnings in the days preceding the fixture.
Key catalysts include confirmation of both teams' final rosters, any official postponement announcements from OCS Asia organisers, and real-time match status updates on the scheduled date. Traders should track the official Overwatch Contenders social channels and team statements for withdrawal notices or force majeure declarations. The settlement window closing at 17:00 UTC on 5 May creates a hard deadline; matches delayed beyond this point without a determined winner would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ow_esports. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Overwatch: Falcons vs VARREL (BO2) - OCS Asia Stage 1 Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$211 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ow_esports. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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